In the second article of our Geopolitical Series, Massimiliano Pedoja — our geopolitical analyst, as well as an Italian avvocato and English solicitor — discusses the latest tariff dispute between India and the US, and explains why it really matters.
A GROWING GEOPOLITICAL DILEMMA
When Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on certain Indian imports, many interpreted the move as yet another provocation. In reality, it’s the latest move in a much broader geopolitical game, in which the United States is attempting to break the economic and political ties that still bind many countries to Russia. This time, the target is India.
According to the White House, the decision was motivated by New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, thereby – albeit indirectly – fuelling the Kremlin’s war economy. But the issue goes far beyond simple oil trade.
A Precarious Balance Between Great Powers
India finds itself in a delicate – if not strategic – position. Squeezed between the need to contain the Chinese threat along the Himalayan border and the ambition to emerge as a global power, New Delhi must walk a fine line. Its foreign policy requires a careful balance between historical ties with Russia and growing cooperation with the United States and its allies.
In recent years, India has intensified its dialogue with Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra, solidifying its presence in the QUAD – an informal partnership aimed at strengthening maritime security, supply chains, and technological resilience in the Indo-Pacific, with a not-so-subtle anti-China agenda.
At the same time, however, ties with Moscow have not weakened. In fact, the war in Ukraine has opened up new energy opportunities for India.
Oil and Sanctions: The Energy Dilemma
Today, Russia has become India’s main oil supplier, covering over 30% of its energy imports – a striking figure, considering that before the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow accounted for just 0.2% of India’s oil market.
The appeal? Prices well below those of Brent crude, the global benchmark, and the possibility of re-exporting refined oil to other markets – including, paradoxically, Europe itself, which has banned direct imports of Russian oil.
Far from being a passive actor, India has taken advantage of this geopolitical window to strengthen its energy autonomy and increase its economic margins. But this very pragmatism is now under fire from the Trump administration, determined to impose a political cost on anyone continuing to do business with Moscow.
An “Old Friendship” That Still Matters
India’s relationship with Russia dates back to the Cold War, when Moscow became New Delhi’s main military partner in opposition to the US-China rapprochement. Even today, a significant portion of India’s military equipment – from fighter jets to naval vessels – is Russian-made. However, this historical bond has been complicated by the growing closeness between Russia and China.
For India, which sees Beijing as a strategic rival, the Moscow-Beijing axis represents a latent threat. This is also why New Delhi is seeking to diversify its suppliers, opening new channels with the United States, France, and Israel.
American Pressure and India’s Response
Trump’s move comes at a particularly sensitive time for India. Its economy is booming, fueled by a young population and a rapidly developing market. To sustain this growth, New Delhi needs stability, foreign investment, and a flexible foreign policy. Getting dragged into a direct confrontation between superpowers risks undermining all of these goals.
At the same time, India – especially under Narendra Modi’s leadership – has cultivated a strong sense of strategic autonomy, fueled by nationalist and post-colonial rhetoric. It’s no surprise, then, that the official response to US threats was one of rejection: no external interference, no impositions from the West.
Nonetheless, Indian diplomacy is known for its pragmatism. It is likely that, behind the scenes, the Modi government is already working on a negotiated way out – perhaps by persuading Moscow to ease some of its positions.
It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2022, Modi publicly admonished Putin during a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, reminding him that “this is not the era of war.”
This time, however, Washington expects something more concrete – and India knows it.
The Risk of a New Polarization
India’s dilemma is a faithful reflection of the tensions running through the international order. Forced to choose — or at least take a side — between two increasingly opposed blocs, India is still searching for a third way. But the pressure is mounting, and the risk is one of forced polarization.
Further complicating matters is the domestic factor. If the public were to perceive American threats as a form of neo-colonialism, the Modi government might be pushed to adopt an even more uncompromising stance, reinforcing the image of a “non-aligned” India — though not an isolated one.
A Future as a Global Power?
India’s next moves will be crucial not only for the future of its bilateral relations with Russia and the United States, but also for its role in the new global balance. Indian diplomacy – long known for its careful manoeuvring among great powers – now faces a crossroads.
Will New Delhi be able to preserve its strategic autonomy without alienating either Moscow or Washington? Or will it ultimately be forced to pick a side?
But in this game, there is a silent observer watching closely: China.
Beijing has everything to gain from a rift between India and the United States – a split that could diminish India’s role in the Indo-Pacific and weaken cooperation within the QUAD.
In other words, China might be the real beneficiary of these rising tensions. And that’s why, paradoxically, the most delicate front for India isn’t in Moscow or Washington – but in Beijing.
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