A lot of commentary portrays President Trump as erratic, even cognitively unfit. Whatever one thinks of his style, that diagnosis misses the point – and it rests on a misleading assumption: that a great power is “run” by one man.
It isn’t.
U.S. strategy is shaped by institutions, interest groups, bureaucracies, voters, and the hard constraints of power. Leaders matter, but they operate within deeper currents. From this angle, there is often more continuity than it seems – even when the rhetoric looks revolutionary.
Let’s take a step back.
An empire in transition, not in collapse
The American informal empire is going through a crisis. “Crisis” does not necessarily mean collapse. It can mean something more specific: a moment when a system must adjust its costs and priorities to preserve its position.
For decades, the United States underwrote a security and economic order that benefited allies as well as competitors. Today, Washington increasingly expects others to carry a larger share of that burden – especially in defence, strategic industries, and technological security.
This is not new. U.S. presidents across administrations have repeatedly pushed allies to spend more on collective defence. The novelty is often the method and the tone, not the underlying demand.
At home, another driver is political: large parts of the population feel the costs of globalization more sharply than its benefits. Call it “imperial fatigue” – the sense that maintaining an open, expensive order served “the system” better than ordinary citizens. That sentiment pushes policymakers toward a simple slogan with complex consequences: burden-sharing.
What this means for business
When a dominant power recalibrates its empire, the environment becomes more volatile. Competition hardens. Rules become instruments. Markets become terrain.
In practice, this translates into legal and compliance risk that increasingly hits companies – including companies that thought they were “non-political”.
1) Sanctions and restricted parties
Sanctions and trade restrictions are broader, faster-moving, and more extraterritorial than many businesses assume. You need robust screening: who you are dealing with, who ultimately owns them, where goods and payments transit, and what happens if a counterparty is designated tomorrow.
2) Dual-use and export controls
The line between civilian and military is thinning in technology, components, software, and know-how. Many products that look “commercial” can fall under dual-use controls – and the classification risk is often underestimated until it becomes a problem.
3) Cyber risk as geopolitical risk
Cyber incidents are not just a criminal matter. Companies can be targeted by state-linked actors, and supply chains can be used as attack surfaces. Even partners in “friendly” jurisdictions can become vectors – deliberately or not.
4) Investments, M&A, and government scrutiny
Thinking of selling the business and retiring? Be careful who the buyer is. If your company touches strategic sectors – technology, data, defence-related supply chains, critical infrastructure — governments may have screening powers and the deal can be delayed, conditioned, or blocked.
The bottom line
These situations are becoming more frequent. Mishandling them can mean delays, blocked transactions, reputational damage and ….fines!
That’s why it is no longer enough to rely on a generic legal service. Companies increasingly need counsel that understands how geopolitics turns into rules: sanctions, export controls, cyber obligations, and investment screening – and can translate that landscape into concrete protection for your business and your decision-makers.
Conclusions
If any of this sounds uncomfortably familiar — a deal that suddenly attracts government attention, a customer or supplier that raises sanctions red flags, questions around dual-use classification, or cyber and compliance risks that feel bigger than “IT issues” — we can help. B&M Law LLP advises businesses on the practical edge of geopolitics and regulation, combining deep experience in sanctions and export controls, cross-border investigations and compliance programmes, cyber and data risk, and transaction support where investment screening may apply. We bring the resources to move quickly, the judgment to focus on what matters, and the clarity to translate fast-changing rules into workable decisions. If you’re facing any of the challenges described above — or want to pressure-test your exposure before it becomes urgent — please get in touch for a confidential conversation.
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